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Prediction for CME (2021-08-26T18:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-08-26T18:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17593/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-08-29T16:11Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-08-27 00:36
. Time at C2: 2021-08-26 18:53
. Radial speed: 599.0 km/s
. Half angle: 45 deg
. Eruption location: N12E20
Inferences:
. Associated flare: C3.0 (N20E14). Peak at 2021-08-26 17:48
Predictions for Earth:
. In-situ shock speed: 569.85 km/s
. Shock arrival time: 2021-08-29 16:11 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.32 hours)
Kp 4.0  5.0

Lead Time: 44.18 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-08-27T20:00Z

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